A Cold Reckoning In Europe
And a confession that I've been too gloomy about the war in Ukraine
As we were going to press last week — I still don’t know a better web-era phrase for that process — Ukraine mounted its long-awaited initiative to break the military stalemate that had set in after Russia’s initial defeat in attempting a full-scale invasion. The Kharkiv advance was far more successful than anyone seems to have expected, including the Ukrainians. You’ve seen the maps of regained territory, but the psychological impact is surely more profound. Russian morale is in the toilet — and if it seems a bit premature to say that Ukraine will soon “win” the war, it’s harder and harder to see how Russia doesn’t lose it. By any measure, this is a wonderful development — made possible by Ukrainian courage and Western arms.
Does this change my gloomy assessment of Putin’s economic war on Europe, which will gain momentum as the winter drags on? Yes and no. Yes, it will help shore up nervous European governments who can now point to Ukraine’s success to justify the coming energy-driven recession. No, it will not make that recession any less intense or destabilizing. It may make it worse, as Putin lashes out.
More to the point, the Kharkiv euphoria will not last forever. September is not next February. Russia still has plenty of ammunition to throw Ukraine’s way (even if it has to scrounge some from North Korea); it is still occupying close to a fifth of the country; still enjoying record oil revenues; has yet to fully mobilize for a war; and still has China and much of the developing world in (very tepid) acquiescence. Putin is very much at bay. But he is not finished.
Europe’s scramble to prevent mass suffering this winter is made up of beefing up reserves (now 84 percent full, ahead of schedule), energy rationing, government pledges to cut gas and electricity use, nationalization of gas companies, and billions in aid to consumers and industry, with some of the money recouped by windfall taxes on energy suppliers. The record recently is cause for optimism:
The Swedish energy company Vattenfall AB said industrial demand for gas in France, the U.K., the Netherlands, Belgium and Italy is down about 15% annually.
But the use of gas by households is trivial in the summer in Europe compared with the winter — and subsidizing the cost doesn’t help conservation. Russia will now cut off all gas — which could send an economy like Italy’s to contract more than 5 percent in one year. There really is no way out of imminent, deep economic distress across the continent. Even countries with minimal dependence on Russia, like Britain, are locked into an energy market with soaring costs.
That will, in turn, strengthen some of the populist-right parties — see Italy and Sweden. The good news is that the new right in Sweden backs NATO, and Italy’s post-liberal darling, Georgia Meloni, who once stanned Putin, “now calls [him] an anti-Western aggressor and said she would ‘totally’ continue to send offensive arms to Ukraine.” The growing evidence of the Russian army’s war crimes — another mass grave was just discovered in Izyum — makes appeasement ever more morally repellent.
So what will Putin do now? That is the question. His military is incapable of recapturing lost territory anytime soon; he is desperate for allies; and mobilizing the entire country carries huge political risks. It’s striking to me that in a new piece, Aleksandr Dugin, the Russian right’s guru, is both apoplectic about the war’s direction and yet still rules out mass conscription:
Mobilization is inevitable. War affects everyone and everything, but mobilization does not mean forcibly sending conscripts to the front, this can be avoided, for example, by forming a fully-fledged volunteer movement, with the necessary benefits and state support. We must focus on veterans and special support for the Novorossian warriors.
This is weak sauce — especially given Dugin’s view that the West is bent on “a war of annihilation against us — the third world war.” It’s that scenario that could lead to a real and potentially catastrophic escalation — which may be why the German Chancellor remains leery of sending more tanks to Ukraine. The danger is a desperate Putin doing something, well, desperate.
But if the continent does get through this coming winter without governments falling and violence on the streets, it will have made some serious gains. Europe needs to wean itself off Russian gas — and the crisis will accelerate it. It needs to revive nuclear power — and now it is. It needs to do much more spending in its own defense — and now it will. The US alliance is far stronger today than a year ago, with NATO expanded and strengthened by its old Russian adversary — with what appears to be very deft, old-school diplomacy from the Biden administration.
And yes, two cheers for Biden. I need to say this more. With some luck but also persistent, quiet outreach to Europe and tight military collaboration with Ukraine, he has a significant foreign policy coup shaping up. His open sharing of US intelligence has kept Russia off-balance; his balanced arming of Ukraine has prevented the war from spiraling out of control; his marshaling of NATO has been superb.
In the long term, European re-armament will also benefit the US arms industry, and the rank failure of the Russian military has further buttressed the West’s military supremacy. The US can now focus more on China — the bigger challenge. And surely Putin’s rank failure to conquer Ukraine will affect China’s calculations toward Taiwan.
So there are indeed uplands beyond the bleakness ahead: a neutered Russia, a weakened (or deposed) Putin, a better-armed and less energy-dependent Europe, and a profound move away from fossil fuels, with nuclear more firmly in the mix. Can Europe get there? I still harbor my doubts. Can Ukraine be fully liberated? I have even more doubts. Will there come a moment of truth as Europe freezes in a recession this fall — and the pressure for a settlement to the war intensifies? Almost certainly. And some kind of territorial compromise is not to be entirely despised. The main argument against giving Putin anything to save face is that his army could always regroup and attack again. But this army? In this state of decay? Not so much.
But the broader impact of this war has already settled one thing: Russia and the panicked, reactionary violence it currently represents is not, mercifully, the future. Which is good news for our domestic politics as well.
(Note to readers: This is an excerpt of The Weekly Dish. If you’re already a subscriber, click here to read the full version. This week’s issue also includes: my defense of gay marriage from new reactionaries; my lively conversation with post-liberal feminist Louise Perry on sex; a ton of reader dissents and assents on topics including the Queen, the radical right, Ukraine and circumcision; six notable quotes from the week in news; 16 pieces we recommend by other Substackers; two Mental Health Breaks of language mashups; a shiny corporate window in Seattle contrasted with a gloomy post-industrial one in Memphis; and, as always, the results of the View From Your Window contest — with a new challenge. Subscribe for the full Dish experience!)
From a new loyal subject to the Dish:
I felt impelled to write after reading your piece on HM the Queen — you really “nailed it” in a way I haven’t seen elsewhere. (And that quote from C.S. Lewis — such a wise and profoundly imaginative man.) Like you, I’m an Englishman; unlike you, I’m still in England, where we are just beginning to work out what we’ve lost with the death of our beloved Queen. It comes at a tricky time for the country but, like you, I draw confidence in the future from our nation’s deep roots in the past, even if so many today are unaware or uninterested in them.
On a more mundane level, you’ve converted me into a paid subscriber by this piece and I look forward to reading more Dish. It’s good to see someone with a US audience making these points so well. I hope there are enough sane people left stateside to appreciate it.
God save the King!
Some Myths About Marriage Equality
It’s been seven years since the Obergefell decision allowed gay couples to get a civil marriage license anywhere in the US. Seventy percent of Americans now back it, including most Republicans — which, in a polarized society, is quite something. Nonetheless, it’s also clear that the base of the Republican Party, and much of its intelligentsia, still cannot accept it. It should not be hard to get 60 votes in the Senate for a bill simply codifying the law of the land, but it has proven to be a very uphill battle — and will now be punted till after the midterm elections.
It’s also sadly clear that many on the post-liberal right remain disgusted by homosexuality.
(Read the rest of the 800-word piece here, for paid subscribers)
New On The Dishcast: Louise Perry
Perry is a writer and campaigner against sexual violence. This year she co-founded a non-partisan feminist think tank called The Other Half, where she serves as Research Director. Her debut book is The Case Against the Sexual Revolution: A New Guide to Sex in the 21st Century, where she takes on casual sex, porn, BDSM, dating apps and prostitution, all from a post-liberal perspective.
For two clips of our convo — on whether Perry finds it suitable to watch porn while married, and if gay promiscuity is more harmful than straight promiscuity — pop over to our YouTube page. Listen to the whole episode here.
That link also takes you to a bunch of listener commentary on our latest episode on the radical right, with Matthew Rose, as well as dissents over my Catholic upbringing and my views on male circumcision. We also serve up a new transcript of our episode with Tina Brown on the British royals, a convo that aired in May. Here’s an audio clip:
Browse the entire Dishcast archive for an episode you might enjoy.
An Icon, Not An Idol: Your Dissents And Assents
We created a separate page for all your reactions over the passing of Queen Elizabeth II and my own tribute to her — check it out. This American reader is very happy to be without a monarchy:
The British people may have connection to their titular head of state, dating back a millennia. However, we Americans are also offered a profound connection — with the ideas of our founding. I must admit a strong preference to linking my nation’s history to the highest-minded ideas of what man can be and can achieve, rather than that of a person or family whose qualities are a wildcard of their environment and genetics. And to be frank, what we are as a nation is why you, a Brit, are here, and why far fewer Americans are there, in the nation of your birth. Some truths, they are self evident.
Ouch. Much more interesting feedback here. I was really surprised by how positive the response was. But keep the dissents coming, as is tradition: dish@andrewsullivan.com.
In The ‘Stacks
This is a feature in the paid version of the Dish spotlighting more than a dozen of our favorite pieces from other Substackers every week. This week’s selection covers the Senate abortion bill, the BYU race hoax, and insurance coverage for psychedelics. Below is one example, followed by a new substack:
Zohar Atkins’ “defense of thoughtless ritualism” is a must-read.
A pseudonymous Substacker is “drinking my way sober” using the Sinclair Method.
You can also browse all the substacks we follow and read on a regular basis here — a combination of our favorite writers and new ones we’re checking out. It’s a blogroll of sorts. If you have any recommendations for “In the ‘Stacks,” especially ones from emerging writers, please let us know: dish@andrewsullivan.com.
The View From Your Window Contest
Where do you think it’s located? Email your guess to contest@andrewsullivan.com. Please put the location — city and/or state first, then country — in the subject line. Proximity counts if no one gets the exact spot. Bonus points for fun facts and stories. The winner gets the choice of a VFYW book or two annual Dish subscriptions. If you are not a subscriber, please indicate that status in your entry and we will give you a free month subscription if we select your entry for the contest results (example here if you’re new to the contest). Happy sleuthing!
The results for last week’s window are coming in a separate email to paid subscribers later today.
See you next Friday.