A Normal Summer And A Normal President
And I, for one, am grateful.
As I was struggling to find dramatic news to write about this week, it dawned on me that I should blame Joe Biden.
For the first time in years, this feels like a normal summer. In the collective buzz, we are speculating about a mysterious baggie of cocaine in the White House, whether Musk and Zuckerberg will actually fight in a cage, if we’ve seen the bottom of Bud Light’s drop in sales, and the dating and texting habits of Jonah Hill (poor fucker). The buzziest story about Biden this week is that he sometimes loses his temper with staffers. Staggering news. Kamala, meanwhile, is preoccupied with the “inequity” of airplane bathrooms. The huge media campaigns behind the summer blockbusters, Barbie and Oppenheimer, are meeting little resistance, even as future movies and TV are on hold, thanks to the woman from The Nanny.
In real news, inflation has now retreated to an annual three percent, surprising even the economic optimists, and far better than many other Western countries. Wages in the US have grown faster than inflation for four straight months. A gallon of gas costs 30 percent less than it did last summer. Unemployment is again touching historic lows, as the US growth machine surpasses everyone else. The dreaded recession hasn’t arrived.
There are weeks when we don’t even have to think about the president at all. Biden was off to a NATO summit, where the alliance, revitalized beyond anyone’s forecast, added a new member, and maintained remarkable unity in resisting the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The changes that are happening under the surface — a strategic decoupling from China, especially on semiconductors, a rapid rebuilding of American factories, accelerating advances in non-carbon energy — are structural and, so far, relatively quiet.
Yes, the Supreme Court moved the country away from affirmative action, but this was a long time coming and far from a surprise. And the public seems to have absorbed the change. A big majority of Americans, across all major demographics, oppose using race as a factor in college admissions anyway. Even the border has become calmer, if only because the Biden administration has effectively allowed everyone in through calmer, legal channels.
Two huge, destabilizing abnormalities have been removed from the body politic: Trump and Covid. We no longer scan the web each morning to find a new Trump outrage, another deranged rant, an international embarrassment, or another petty, random abuse of power. We no longer have to absorb the stream of lies that came out of that little mouth in that vast orange face.
Yes, we have a president who is occasionally a Botoxed Abraham Simpson, mangling his words, walking off television sets, wandering around with an empty, vacant gaze on his face. But what a relief not to have one’s sanity, composure and mood assaulted hourly by the most powerful man in the country. Trump is still mouthing off, of course. And his postings on Truth Social are at new levels of derangement and rage. But for a brief, blessed period, we don’t have to think of him all the time.
And with the final end of Covid, we’re traveling again; taking holidays; seeing old friends and family, catching up after that strange, lost interlude of plague, when years of our lives suddenly seemed to evaporate into a time warp. In this little resort town I live in each summer, the old rituals are back with some punch: the crowds at the daily tea-dance, the daily trek to the beaches, the late-night drunken shenanigans. Yes, the weather on our carbon-soaked planet is insane, but technology could still surprise us — even something as simple as white paint.
So let’s enjoy this summer, and offer a small measure of gratitude to Joe Biden for making it as familiar and as quiet as it used to be. After five summers of Trump overlapping with three summers of plague, let’s take a moment and appreciate it. It won’t last. Next summer, we will be in the throes of an election, with the madman back to haunt our dreams. And who knows what a truly desperate Putin might do.
But now? An interlude, a throwback, a pause. In the old Fleet Street, they called these dog days of summer the “silly season” — when dumb, little stories got huge coverage, the middle classes watched Wimbledon, and the interns did most of the work. It’s a dismissive turn of phrase, but it’s the kind of thing that only really exists in a free society, where politics is kept at a distance, and private life can have its moment in the sun.
For all his faults, we have Biden to thank for this normalcy. Maybe next fall, we will remember, and vote to keep it.
New On The Dishcast: Jean Twenge
Jean is a writer and researcher who focuses on generational differences. She’s a psychology professor at San Diego State University and the author of seven books, most notably iGen. Her new one is Generations: The Real Differences Between Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, Boomers, and Silents. Our conversation focused mainly on how fucked up Gen Z is, and why.
Listen to the episode here. There you can find two clips of our convo — on why Gen Zers are safer but feel more traumatized than ever, and why teens are having much less sex. That link also takes you to commentary on a few recent episodes, plus a ton of reader debate over my disappointment in Obama’s post-presidency.
A Live Boy Or A Dead Girl?
That’s the question many sex reassignment doctors pose to parents of a child with gender dysphoria. Will you change the kid’s sex or wait till she kills himself? It’s one or the other.
When you think about it, it’s an extraordinary question, the kind of blackmail you might expect from a mafia boss and not a pediatrician. And you’d assume — because these are medical professionals, after all — that such a huge claim would have a mountain of strong evidence behind it.
And yet there is none. Yes, doctors cite personal experience with dysphoric kids. Yes, suicide rates for trans people are much higher than the average — at all ages. Yes, there are some small, sketchy studies that claim success in preventing suicide among teens. But actual, solid evidence in reliable studies? Nope.
To give a sense of the bullshit, here’s Stephen Hammes, president of the Endocrine Society:
More than 2,000 studies published since 1975 form a clear picture: Gender-affirming care improves the well-being of transgender and gender-diverse people and reduces the risk of suicide.
Note the vagueness, and the absence of any mention of children — the only population we need to be concerned about. And here is the Endocrine Society’s own study on sex reassignments for kids:
We could not draw any conclusions about death by suicide.
Today, in the Wall Street Journal, 21 pediatric clinicians from nine countries call Hammes out. In those countries that have conducted systematic evidence-based reviews of all the studies involving children, all of them have concluded that “the evidence for mental-health benefits of hormonal interventions for minors [is] of low or very low certainty.” The risks — permanent sterility, inability to experience orgasm ever, irreversible changes to the body, voice and face — are very real. Yet the American Academy of Pediatrics refuses to conduct a similar systematic review, five years after its last guidance.
A survey of a decade of child transitions in the UK, from 2010 to 2020, found that the data “shed no light” on whether reassignment affects the suicide rate. But here’s the stunner: of the more than 15,000 children treated for gender dysphoria, the number of suicides was four. It is insane to believe that every child with dysphoria will kill themselves if not subjected to a sex change. If a doctor tells you this, find another doctor.
Why would they lie like this? I honestly don’t know. Here are some possibilities: misguided compassion for children in distress; believing you are part of a cultural revolution that starts with children; banking on the vast revenues of having patients for a lifetime of treatment; or just following ideological fiats, intimidated by woke peers, and fearing liability for past missteps.
Positing suicide is also psychologically devastating to kids with gender dysphoria. It ups the emotional ante. It provides a sense of melodrama and power to troubled kids, who can easily abuse it. Besides, as Hannah Barnes, who investigated the UK gender clinic known as GIDS, put it on the Dishcast:
What message does that send to young people, that [dysphoria] is so bad for you to contend with that you might end up taking your own life? That’s a terrible message.
I don’t want to ban any medical procedure. It may be that in a few cases, transition will help at such a young age. But recommending them as a general rule, the minute a child says they’re the opposite sex, without exploration of other possible mental health issues? Reckless beyond belief. That has got to stop. Someone has to protect the children, especially the gay ones, who cannot protect themselves.
The View From Your Window
Denver, Colorado, 6.24 pm
Money Quotes For The Week
“He embraces his meanness. He luxuriates in his darkness. Let other politicians peddle the pablum of inspiration. He prefers to ooze the toxin of contempt. … I remember ‘morning in America.’ I guess it’s now midnight,” - Frank Bruni on DeSantis.
“It looks as if Donald Trump had already these 24 hours once in his time. We were at war, not a full-scale war ... [H]e had that time at his disposal, but he must have had some other priorities,” - Zelensky on Trump’s claim he will end the war in 24 hours if reelected.
“While content moderation can limit the distribution of clearly dangerous content, it doesn’t go far enough. Users who want to spread disinformation have become experts … [T]hese big platforms need to be subject to some level of oversight and regulation,” - Barack Obama.
“Yes, the laptop is Russia,” - Barb McQuade in an October 2020 tweet since deleted. She’s the author of a forthcoming book, Attack from Within: How Disinformation is Sabotaging America.
“In the distant future we won’t know what computers are doing, or why. If two of them converse, they’ll say in a second more than all the words spoken during all the lives of all the people who ever lived on this planet,” - Edward Fredkin, AI pioneer, to the NYT in 1977.
The View From Your Window
Denver, Colorado, 8.03 pm
Dissents Of The Week: Didn’t You Want No Drama?
A reader feels that I’m overreacting in my view of Obama’s post-presidency:
While I do enjoy a good rehash of the best things Obama has said in past speeches, I would find it impolitic of him to suddenly take a fierce stand against the “woke” cultural movement — one that already appears to have outlived its welcome in many left-leaning circles outside of Twitter. As an elder statesman, it behooves him to let the movement carry on with or without his personal seal of approval while also breathing MILD scorn on the opposition. This is No Drama Obama we’re talking about.
And it could be far worse; Obama could pull a Jon Stewart who, desperate to once again be the darling of youth-leftists everywhere, abandoned the principled and well-thought-out arguments that drew us to him in the first place in favor of the incomprehensible, resentment-soaked, self-negating, self-righteousness of the Twitter Left.
That’s a good counter-point. But a little consistency would be lovely nonetheless. Another points the finger at Trump:
The way Obama was during his campaign and presidency is who he really is. How could he not be, since he was raised by his loving white mother and grandparents. Maybe he expected he could change some people’s minds about race and its place in our history. And he clearly did.
But then he was replaced by a bigot, if not a racist, who essentially launched his campaign by claiming that the first black president was illegitimate because he wasn’t born in the US. Perhaps Obama had to listen more carefully to the other arguments being made about the black experience in the US — I sure would.
Another points the finger at Trump supporters:
How much do you think the way Obama was treated for eight years influences how he talks about race post-presidency? The amount of racist vitriol emanating from the right towards him was disgusting. An obvious example is birtherism, but early the Henry Louis Gates “beer summit” episode was quite telling. There is plenty of evidence that a large factor in Trump’s election was racism — a likely backlash to Obama.
Yes. Many seemed willing to vote for the first black president, but were not quite so willing to be governed by him. But there’s also the inconvenient truth that many counties in 2016 switched from Obama to Trump, including 22 in Wisconsin alone. And: “The ANES data show that just over 13% of Trump’s voters backed Obama in 2012, while about 4% of Clinton’s support came from voters who voted for Romney in 2012.”
More reader debate on Obama’s post-presidency is over on the pod page. As always, keep the dissents coming: dish@andrewsullivan.com.
Mental Health Break
Elvis likes ‘em thicc:
In The ‘Stacks
Moderation looks increasingly dead in the GOP race for president.
On inflation, Noah Smith grades the various schools of economic thought.
Tim Noah observes, “Rich and poor are getting richer. The middle is not.”
“No, greedflation isn’t really a thing,” Freddie writes, “but the people complaining about it are right anyway.”
Will the cluster-bomb shipments to Ukraine become a clusterfuck?
Filipovic rejoices over the first over-the-counter Pill — but she has questions.
Seth Moskowitz traces the history of Asian-Americans turning to the GOP, largely over crime. The murder of immigrants is often ignored by the left and right.
Zuckerberg gets millions in private security but finances “defund the police.”
After a cringe TV appearance, Konstantin concludes, “the eco loons are crazy — but they’re winning.”
Australia is crushing it on solar.
Pride Month as liturgy.
Queer Language Watch: “bonus hole” for vagina.
Were the first laws sung?
Christian Alejandro Gonzalez defends the classics against Hanania and others.
Why are there fewer geniuses these days?
Ross Barkan joins the recent debate over the merits of travel.
Dreher weighs the pros and cons of catastrophe and malaise.
What motivates male tycoons to go on deadly adventures?
Noah Carl makes the case that women are more likely to support censorship.
Bryan Caplan and Louise Perry — two Dishcast alums — debate feminism and natalism.
The View From Your Window Contest
Where do you think? Email your entry to contest@andrewsullivan.com. Please put the location — city and/or state first, then country — in the subject line. Bonus points for fun facts and stories. Proximity counts. The deadline for entries is Wednesday night at midnight (PST). The winner gets the choice of a View From Your Window book or two annual Dish subscriptions.
See you next Friday.