Can A Cult Become A Movement?
Can A Cult Become A Movement?
Some signs of a Trump-free Trumpism emerged on Tuesday.
The specter of a Trump-free GOP is hovering tremulously over the results of Georgia’s primaries this week. Governor Brian Kemp — the Orange Man’s true GOP nemesis — simply blew away his Trump-endorsed opponent by a staggering 50 points. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger — a man critical to defending the integrity of Georgia’s elections in 2020 against Trump’s attempted sabotage — also won by almost 20 points against a Big Lie peddler. There was also encouraging news down the ballot:
Trump’s candidate for Georgia attorney general, John Gordon, won just about one-quarter of the GOP vote. Even Trump’s picks for wide-open House races lagged behind the competition: Vernon Jones, the self-proclaimed “Black Donald Trump,” finished second in Georgia’s 10th District primary and is headed to a runoff against Republican Mike Collins. Physician Rich McCormick held a 2-to-1 edge over his Trump-endorsed rival Jake Evans in the 6th District; that contest is also headed to a June runoff.
As the conservative pundit Erick Erickson, a Georgia Republican himself, puts it, “Georgia Republicans do like Trump, but they’re tired of his bullshit and want to move on.”
Of course, Georgia may be a special case. This was the state that in 2020 witnessed more directly than any other state Trump’s preference for personal vendettas and loyalty over policy or party unity or anything, actually. But this is also the core truth about Trump — and if more widely believed in other states, it could begin to take a real toll. Chris Christie has honed a good line on this:
What we have to decide is: do we want to be the party of me or the party of us? What Donald Trump has advocated is for us to be the ‘party of me,’ that everything has to be about him and about his grievances.
And I can’t see how even many Trump voters would be able to disagree with that. Henry Olson notes:
An NBC News poll conducted in October 2020 showed that a majority of GOP voters said they supported Trump first over the party. Its May poll shows the situation reversed, with 58 percent saying they back the party first.
Trump once benefited from Americans’ short attention spans; but his continuing ego-driven fixation on 2020 hurts him now for the same reason. He’s become a total bore, a crank looking back, not forward, barely ever mentioning policy, in a way that only underlines his prickly, grudge-driven narcissism. A figure who could mimic Trump’s broader fuck-it-all style, and focus on substantive policy more than Trump does, and have a record of actually getting shit done, could conceivably co-opt the Trump populism without the Trump baggage.
That was already clear in 2020, as the GOP did much better in the House than in the presidential race. Here’s a money quote from Kathy Barnette, a fresh face on the far-right who came out of nowhere to almost win in Pennsylvania on Tuesday:
MAGA does not belong to President Trump. Our values never, never shifted to President Trump’s values. It was President Trump who shifted and aligned with our values.
That’s the sound of a cult trying to become a movement. And it has a sane political rationale. In 2022 - 2024, Trumpism without Trump, it seems to me, has a real edge. Biden, despite what George Will called today “his stunning achievement in the Ukraine crisis,” is floundering.
The president’s record at home is particularly vulnerable to classic conservative critiques. The right will argue that his huge overspending last year created inflation; that his dithering has spawned a new wave of illegal mass migration; that murder rates have soared (affecting black lives especially); and that he’s hostage to the increasingly unpopular woke — passionately in favor of teaching that America is inherently a racist slavocracy, and that young gender-dysphoric kids should be fast-tracked for sex changes before puberty. That’s how they’ll frame it. And whatever your view of these issues, they represent an objectively very fertile electoral environment for the GOP. Throw in a period of stagflation, and the odds of a Republican sweep in 2022 and 2024 seem quite high.
So going into 2024, it’s perfectly possible we’ll have GOP majorities in the Senate and the House, a fading president, and a Republican party itching for the triple slam dunk. And that’s when, it seems to me, a new question emerges: what if Trump is so polarizing and petty that he puts this real Republican opportunity in danger?
If Christie’s “party of me” narrative, successful in Georgia, begins to spread, it’s much easier to see DeSantis as a plausible Trumpism-Without-Trump alternative. Against a decrepit confused Biden, Trump feels like a dread-filled replay of last time. DeSantis, on the other hand, comes off as young, aggressive and decisive. He arouses the GOP erogenous zone — on Covid, immigration, wokeness — without the chaos and mayhem Trump would bring into the White House again. A straw poll in Wisconsin already shows DeSantis edging out Trump.
And it’s worth recalling that DeSantis hasn’t always been a firebrand. When he was first elected governor, he was more conciliatory:
Among [his] early moves: appointing Democrats to prominent positions in his administration, championing bipartisan legislation to improve water quality and boost teacher pay, and bucking GOP efforts to ban use of medicinal marijuana.
So he can affect different political moods, unlike Trump. And point to the future, unlike Trump. While effectively channeling much of the same energy, but without the obvious incompetence, insanity and vindictiveness of Trump. There are worse options available for the country. And not a lot of better ones.
(Note to readers: This is an excerpt of The Weekly Dish. If you’re already a subscriber, click here to read the full version. This week’s issue also includes: my reaction to the evil in Uvalde; a chat with the legendary political scientist Fukuyama on the threats to liberal democracy; reader dissents and other discussion on the similarities between CRT and GRT; six notable quotes for the week; 15 links to Substack pieces we recommend; a stunning compilation of drone shots from a world traveler; a hopeful sunrise view from Hawaii; and, as always, the results of the View From Your Window contest — with a new challenge. Subscribe for the full Dish experience!)
From a new subscriber:
OK, you got me. I’ve been sitting on the fence reading your free Friday edition of the Dish but after reading your latest issue, “The Sinister Symmetry Of CRT And GRT,” I finally pulled the trigger and subscribed. I can’t stand “what-aboutism" writing, but that article came across as both an intellectually honest assessment and a fresh take on both issues. I’m probably going to seldom agree with you, but there is almost always some meat on those bones (a unique perspective) for me to chew on. Keep up the good work.
A fan of the VFYW contest is still on the fence:
Last week’s picture is looking at the Meritage Resort in Napa, CA. My employer has held conferences at the Meritage several times, so I have stayed there. I am not all that into wine — beer and bourbon/whiskey are more my thing — but the resort is a lovely place and Napa is a beautiful part of the country. (The cartoon beagle covering the statue of the winemaker is great!)
I am not a subscriber (shame on me, I know), though I’ve been reading the blog since the early 2000s. And this is my second VFYW contest I have entered. I should really subscribe. You all do great work!
American Grieving
I wish I knew what to say about the massacre of children. But there are no words. Each time I begin to imagine what the scene was actually like in that single classroom where 19 terrified kids were turned into such mincemeat that the parents gave DNA samples to find out who they were, my mind goes numb.
And now, as we begin to absorb the fatal mistakes the police made — unforgivably standing back even as countless shots were fired — the sense of profound agony intensifies. There appear to be no heroes here; just victims, and a grief that will haunt these parents and families forever.
Yes, America’s pathological relationship with guns is the blindingly obvious context; their ubiquity; their obscene fetishization. So too a more general culture of violence and extremism in the discourse. And then the young murderer himself: no father really present in his life, bullied, depressed, vengeful, all but screaming his distress and derangement, until he committed an act of unfathomable evil.
And then the sheer helplessness in the face of the broader question: the fact that a critical minority of Americans adamantly refuse almost any limits on access to any kind of weapon, and are able — thanks to the Senate’s demographic imbalance — to block any meaningful attempts to set saner limits; the ineluctable legacy of a country established with an open frontier for centuries, where the federal government, unlike that in almost any other Western country, never acquired a monopoly of firepower; and the potent logic of self-defense once a critical mass of lethal weaponry is simply out there.
But that means the slaughter of innocents is also a unique and recurring feature of American life and culture. Even if we were able to curb the excesses, the reality of a country swimming with weaponry means it will happen again, becoming something that defines and disgraces us, in the eyes of the world and in the eyes of God. It’s an assault on innocence and an assault on the future. It damns us as a country. In the words of Thomas Lynch (via Matt LaBash):
When we bury the old, we bury the known past, the past we imagine sometimes better than it was, but the past all the same, a portion of which we inhabited. Memory is the overwhelming theme, the eventual comfort. But burying infants, we bury the future, unwieldy and unknown, full of promise and possibilities, outcomes punctuated by our rosy hopes. The grief has no borders, no limits, no known ends, and the little infant graves that edge the corners and fencerows of every cemetery are never quite big enough to contain that grief.
Day draws near. Another one. Do what you can.
New On The Dishcast: Francis Fukuyama
Fukuyama is simply the most sophisticated and nuanced political scientist in the field today. He’s currently at Stanford, but he’s also taught at Johns Hopkins and George Mason. The author of almost a dozen books, his most famous is The End of History and the Last Man, published shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union. His new book is Liberalism and Its Discontents.
For two clips of our convo — explaining why we need to pay attention to “the men without chests,” and remembering when the political right championed open borders — head over to our YouTube page. Listen to the whole episode here. That link also takes you to reader commentary on themes addressed by Fukuyama, as well as continued debate over CRT and GRT.
Did you ever catch the episode last year with Glenn Greenwald criticizing Bolsonaro, woke journalism, and animal torture? We now have a full transcript available, if you’d rather read the conversation.
From a fan of last week’s episode with David French:
Well, you proved me wrong once again. I was not familiar with Mr. French, and when I read that he would be joining the Dishcast, I thought that I would be subjected to a very distorted view of reality — after all, I did listen to your talk with Chris Rufo. Obviously I was very wrong. Mr. French reawakened my belief in the goodness and reasonableness of many Christians — some of whom have been friends. I was especially grateful for his distinction between fundamentalism and faith — one I’ve never made so clearly. Thanks for a thought-provoking discussion, especially since it helped me get over my overly pessimistic feelings about so many things.
Here’s a snippet from the French convo:
From a fan of another recent episode:
I absolutely loved your conversation with Douglas Murray. To be honest, I had very low expectations going into the episode: I had never heard of the guy, and I’ve gotten my very fair share of “the West is being attacked/dying/committing suicide” books, lectures, seminars, etc. over the years. In other words, at this point in my life, I find the typical “defense of the West” to be boring and hackneyed — even if ultimately important. However, I found Murray’s perspective original and his conversation with you refreshing. The truth is, the West does need defending.
Better to defend it than sink into ressentiment:
Browse the entire Dishcast archive for an episode you might enjoy.
Dissents Of The Week: JFC With The CRT Already
A reader writes:
I really enjoyed your piece on the interplay between GRT and CRT — until your last line: “And, in their racialized heart, they are morally exactly the same.” This feels like a clear case of false moral equivalence. I am no big fan of CRT and recognize the many problems it poses. But I seem to have missed the part where CRT adherents are wielding assault weapons to livestream themselves proudly committing horrific race massacres. Yet these GRT types have been doing so for years. There is simply no moral equivalent on the far left to the Buffalo shooter or any of the (many) Dylann Roof/Charlottesville white terrorist types in the growing GRT swamp (which I absolutely agree is being fed in a vicious cycle by CRT).
Read the rest of that dissent, along with three others, plus my responses to all of them, here. The debate continues on the pod page. As always, keep the dissents coming: dish@andrewsullivan.com.
In The ‘Stacks
This is a feature in the paid version of the Dish spotlighting about a dozen of our favorite pieces from other Substackers every week. This week’s selection covers subjects such as the Uvalde massacre, the post-pandemic economy, and literary insults. Below are some examples, including a new Substack:
Christina Rees hears the “primal scream” of the fathers of the Uvalde victims prevented from entering the school. “Graham” defends the cops.
A belated welcome, Rob Henderson! (Among other things he’s a success story for standardized tests.)
You can also browse all the Substack writers we follow and read on a regular basis here — a combination of our favorite writers and new ones we’re checking out. It’s a blogroll of sorts. If you have any recommendations for “In the ‘Stacks,” especially ones from emerging writers, please let us know: dish@andrewsullivan.com.
The View From Your Window Contest
Where do you think it’s located? Email your guess to contest@andrewsullivan.com. Please put the location — city and/or state first, then country — in the subject line. Proximity counts if no one gets the exact spot. Bonus points for fun facts and stories. The winner gets the choice of a VFYW book or two annual Dish subscriptions. If you are not a subscriber, please indicate that status in your entry and we will give you a free month subscription if we select your entry for the contest results (example here if you’re new to the contest). Happy sleuthing!
The results for last week’s window are coming in a separate email to paid subscribers later today. It was a really easy one, so spoiler alert:
But the fun of the contest isn’t just finding the right location, but reading the many entertaining and informative entries from all the dedicated sleuths. Subscribe here for an apolitical escape every week.
Have a great holiday weekend. I’m finally off to Ptown. See you next Friday.