It took him three election cycles, but Donald J. Trump, by sheer luck, dogged persistence, and the over-reach of his enemies, now bestrides our political scene with such dominance that he even allowed himself a little faux-serenity in his speech last night. In less than a decade, he has entrenched the GOP in a very different form of conservatism than its post-1945 past; removed almost all traces of the neocon legacy (apart from debt and tax cuts); found a possible, serious successor in furthering this version of the right, J.D. Vance; and, for the first time, produced an extremely smooth, well-crafted, confidence-boosting, feel-good convention. Trump’s political story — like this choreographed television spectacle — really could be called Triumph of the Will if it were not so reminiscent of Idiocracy.
That is an extraordinary political achievement, a tribute to masterful demagoguery, rank opportunism, an almost entirely invented reality — and a psychotic ability to stick to it. But days before this triumph, in a moment so purely American it still bewilders, Trump was bestowed the mantle of Providence as well. I still look at that video and those photo-stills of the attempted assassination with my jaw permanently dropped. If you believe, as I do, that history is made by both structural change and pure, random chance, then that bullet’s trajectory, and Trump’s subtle shift of his head, is up there with Gavrilo Princip’s but in reverse. The shooter missed, thank God. I shudder to think where we would be now if the bullet had blown Trump’s head apart — as it was right on target to do. We would be in a near civil war.
But we’re not. America’s luck held. And the narrative that Trump has crafted — which requires a truly historic suspension of disbelief — just became more potent. The outsider businessman, taking on the corrupt elite, hounded by the woke press, targeted by leftist courts, unjustly impeached, outrageously smeared, almost assassinated … somehow survived and has the prospect of the greatest comeback in American history.
“They” spied on his campaign, sabotaged his policies, demonized his supporters, invented hoaxes to impeach him, then prosecuted him four times on flimsy or fake grounds, and yet he still stands. As many speakers at the convention said, “they” also tried to kill him. When he was president, the economy boomed, the world was at peace, crime was the lowest in the history of the world, wages high … until “they” stole the election from him and instantly turned America into Venezuela.
The truth, of course, is immensely different, but there are enough shreds of verity in Trump’s skewed version of events for the narrative to seduce. If you largely believe it, as a plurality of Americans seem to, you will vote in unheard-of numbers this November, in what might be the most multi-racial, working-class coalition the modern GOP has ever assembled. And this “enemy of democracy” will actually be shown to be its unifying salvation.
You can see how the producers of the convention and image-makers of the campaign tried to create this triumphant, magnanimous Trump 2.0, appealing more to those outside his party, more moderate in tone, more grandfatherly in affect. Every conservative erogenous zone was fluffed: the victims of crime by illegal immigrants, World War II vets, UFC, and MaMaw with her 19 hidden handguns. But the edges were softened by grandchildren, Gold Star families, an adorable dog, a moving tribute to the man murdered in Trump’s stead, and Vance’s mother, with her tenuous grip on sobriety.
The assassination attempt cemented the image of Trump as conservative victim. And in a truly surreal way, the near-death experience will have deepened the Christian nationalism that has proven so potent these past few years. What greater symbol of the intervention of the Holy Spirit than that bullet’s trajectory! And Trump’s iconic response — that impossible-to-contrive photo of his fist raised, face bloodied — is an instant Jacksonian legend. For me, the instantaneous response — “Fight!” “Fight!” “Fight!” — also showed Trump’s infernal desire to turn everything into mindless aggression. Fight what? Fight whom? Who cares? Just fight!
What makes this narrative feel like something deeper than a mere looming electoral college landslide is that, simultaneously, the entire liberal establishment seems to be imploding. The Democrats’ Biden formula — impose radical social, economic, and cultural change by fronting it with a moderate, easy-to-bully old man — has unraveled as obviously as Biden’s health. One reason is that the president is simply incapable of catching the attention of the country — except in universal cringe — and has singularly failed to construct a compelling narrative of his own.
Another is the incoherence of the Resistance. If you want to protest potential abuse of the justice system by a future president Trump, don’t bring an obviously flimsy, political case in New York City that merely helped Trump sweep back to dominance in the GOP. If you want a saner GOP, don’t demonize every other possibility, from DeSantis to Vance. If you emphasize the danger of political violence, don’t turn a blind eye as BLM burns America’s cities to the ground, or ignore Antifa. If you want to accuse Fox News of propaganda, don’t push out equal and opposite propaganda on toxic MSNBC. If you think democracy dies in darkness, why try to get Trump legally excluded from some state ballots, and prevent any real primary among Democrats?
More saliently, if one of your main lines of attack on Trump is his mendacity, it was probably not a great idea to tell the entire country that Biden was, in Joe Scarborough’s words, “far beyond cogent. In fact, I think he’s better than he’s ever been — intellectually, analytically…”
The lies the Democrats have been telling us these past few years are legion: inflation won’t happen/is temporary/is good for you; the Southern border is secure; “equity” is “fairness”; biological sex is a “spectrum”; Ukraine is about to win the war; Russia’s economy can be sanctioned to death; political violence is entirely on the far right; children can meaningfully consent to sex changes; the only thing holding black Americans back is white bigotry; the mainstream media is fair; and women have penises. Yes, Trump is a shameless liar. But the left’s propaganda has muddied the waters. When NBC’s higher-ups took Morning Joe off the air this week, it was a real moment. Even the muckety-mucks couldn’t take the lucrative propaganda anymore.
I will never vote for Trump — because he is so psychologically disturbed and so contemptuous of the rule of law that he remains a danger to us and the world. But I can see the logic of Trumpism. Those who feel left behind — culturally, economically — need at least one party to represent them and their values. As Biden has proven, protectionism is not all bad, especially when related to supply chains and national security. Mass immigration is out of control, and only one party gets it. Support for those who have lost the most from globalization seems to me a defensible conservative position, after migrant winners like me have had such a good run of it. And the madness of the neocon war machine demands a president able to spurn it.
In Britain, the right-populist working-class formula appeared like a chimera after Boris Johnson’s landslide, and then dissipated into Boris’ incoherence and sloth. In France, the new right is kept from power only by tactical voting. In Italy, a version of this conservatism is already in place. In America, with Trump alone, I long doubted its ability to emerge from his vanity and insanity. But his pick of Vance changes that. In fact, his pick suggests that Trump himself may now be comfortable with Trumpism from a non-family member beyond his second term.
Vance has walked the walk of this new rightism in his brief time in national politics. As Lee Fang has noted:
Vance was one of the first modern Republicans to walk the picket lines in support of the United Autoworker Union strike for higher wages and benefits last year … Speaking to American Compass last year, Vance explained his belief that market forces have failed the American family and that policymakers should consider tax penalties for corporations that ship jobs overseas and subsidies for businesses that restore the nation’s manufacturing base.
And Vance’s deep skepticism of the war in Ukraine and his general call for retrenchment in foreign policy is also desperately needed in Washington. The neocons have learned nothing from their massive failures; and extracting their extremism from the GOP will offer a real choice in foreign policy for the first time in a long while.
Alongside Vance, there is also now a very rough-and-ready intellectual, judicial and bureaucratic apparatus to put Trumpism into effect. From American Compass to American Affairs, the Dishcast has been previewing these new conservatives these past few years, and I find their critiques of neoliberalism compelling. All this means is that, for the first time, a second Trump term will likely have much more potential than his first — if Trump himself doesn’t squander it. We have, in other words, a counter-establishment beginning to take shape that will expand the choices American voters can meaningfully make. That’s not the death of democracy; it’s a rebirth of sorts.
One final thing: a critical conservative reformulation took place this past week. It was the argument that America is not just an idea but a home. And in the past few decades, the value of that idea on the right has subsumed the reality of that home. Trumpism is an adjustment back to the center in that respect. And a conservatism that cannot grasp why home is important is not a real conservatism.
Is this election over? Probably — as I’ve thought for a while now. Is the liberal regime that has governed both party elites since the Second World War also over? Probably as well. But in so far as that represents a response to truly changed circumstances, and to the evident failures of neoliberalism, that’s not so bad. A largely unified, uniparty blob in DC needed disruption. Trump disrupted. Now Trumpism may have a chance to prove itself in government … or not.
Can the Democrats respond with the skill, poise and energy required? If Biden goes, and an open convention can showcase newer, younger talent, there’s still a chance. But it will take nerve to seize it.
(Note to readers: This is an excerpt of The Weekly Dish. If you’re already a subscriber, click here to read the full version. This week’s issue also includes: a wonderful chat with Lionel Shriver on human limitations and more; reader dissents over my prediction of a Trump landslide; 19 pieces on Substack we recommend on a variety of topics; 13 notable quotes from a remarkable week of news; three Moore Awards — a blog throwback for “divisive, bitter and intemperate left-wing rhetoric” — for MSNBC; a Mental Health Break of improv and Richard Simmons; a religious window from Kraków; and, of course, the results of the View From Your Window contest — with a new challenge. Subscribe for the full Dish experience!)
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New On The Dishcast: Lionel Shriver
Lionel is an author and journalist. She’s written 17 novels, most notably We Need to Talk About Kevin, and in 2022 she published her first book of nonfiction, Abominations: Selected Essays from a Career of Courting Self-Destruction. She’s currently a columnist for The Spectator, and her new book is Mania, a satirical novel about a dystopian movement that claims that everyone is equally smart.
We recorded the episode last month — listen to it here. There you can find two clips of our convo — on the relief that comes with personal limitations, and whether feminism has run its course. That link also takes you to commentary on our episodes with Stephen Fry, Erick Erickson, Elizabeth Corey, and Christian Wiman. Plus, readers discuss the chaotic presidential race.
Browse the Dishcast archive for an episode you might enjoy (the first 102 are free in their entirety — subscribe to get everything else). Coming up: Jeffrey Toobin on the Supreme Court, Anne Applebaum on autocrats, Eric Kaufmann on reversing woke extremism, and Bill Wasik and Monica Murphy on animal cruelty. (Van Jones’ PR team canceled his planned appearance.) Please send any guest recs, dissents, and other comments to dish@andrewsullivan.com.
I do not understand where you get this notion of a “Trump landslide.” Correct, many Americans are troubled seeing Biden stumbling as of late, but this is not necessarily going to result in more votes for Trump. Much as Biden falters, Trump has a ceiling over him. Many moderate and independent voters are not going to vote for Trump. Illegal immigration, crime, and inflation were all high in 2022, yet the Democrats took the Senate and came close to holding the House. Contrast that to Obama in 2010 and Clinton in 1994. Trump is a barrier to Republicans gaining dominance.
Another dissent:
You’re downplaying the real potential of American fascism, especially with Trump’s pledge to launch “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.” Between the National Guard in friendly states and Border Patrol nationwide, that’s a lot of power for an authoritarian president. Did you see all the “Mass Deportation Now!” signs on the floor of the GOP convention?
Read my response to that dissent, along with four others, here. Follow more Dish discussion on the Notes site here (or the “Notes” tab in the Substack app). As always, keep the dissents coming: dish@andrewsullivan.com.
This is a feature in the paid version of the Dish spotlighting about 20 of our favorite pieces from other Substackers every week. This week’s selection covers subjects such as the Secret Service, Trump’s new running mate, and the new law in California on gender identity in schools. Below is one example, followed by a revamped substack:
Jonah Goldberg debates Niall Ferguson’s contention that we’re living in “late Soviet America.”
Frank Fukuyama merges with Persuasion, and Yascha Mounk launches a weekly column. Congrats!
You can also browse all the substacks we follow and read on a regular basis here — a combination of our favorite writers and new ones we’re checking out. It’s a blogroll of sorts. If you have any recommendations for “In the ‘Stacks,” especially ones from emerging writers, please let us know: dish@andrewsullivan.com.
The View From Your Window Contest
Where do you think it’s located? (The cartoon beagle is hiding a key clue.) Email your guess to contest@andrewsullivan.com. Please put the location — city and/or state first, then country — in the subject line. Proximity counts if no one gets the exact spot. Bonus points for fun facts and stories. The deadline for entries is Wednesday night at midnight (PST). The winner gets the choice of a VFYW book or two annual Dish subscriptions. If you are not a subscriber, please indicate that status in your entry and we will give you a free month subscription if we select your entry for the contest results (example here if you’re new to the contest). Contest archive is here. Happy sleuthing!
The results for this week’s window are coming in a separate email to paid subscribers later today. Here’s a teaser from the sleuths known as Team Bellevue:
A fun search this week, lots to dig into, and ultimately it was again the art that lead us to our solution …
QUICK READS
Pair of very distinctive taxis
Mural full of indicators we’re in Africa, likely near the ocean, and a large city/towers
Intriguing light-blue guard hut
Ah, the ocean is indeed near — reflected in the windows!
Can’t make much of any signage, but the text looks like it’s all Roman
DIGGING DEEPER
Okay, let’s take the mural literally: we have zebras on an ocean in one panel … Where will we find zebras? And are any near the ocean? Here’s the range we found for zebras:
We ran with this to Kenya, Tanzania, South Africa, and even that strip of land into Angola, but nothing panned out. And the taxis didn’t match.
Since the taxis were helpful at rejecting places, they seemed the next best area to dig, but no amount of “yellow and black taxi” queries turned up matches for our cabs in the view. It did however turn up this fantastic “taxi” from TopGear and Land Rover, which while not on the linear path to the solution, is our rightest-wrong of the week:
