Trump waves after speaking at the New York Young Republican Club's 111th annual gala on December 9. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)
If the core conservative truth is that we do not know very much, and should temper our expectations and ambitions, then the core liberal truth is that progress is still possible and shouldn’t be abandoned. I think both traditions are integral to our success as a liberal democracy. But it seems to me that 2023 was a year for conservatives. It was a year when several illusions evaporated.
Herewith, then, some of the unpleasant, brutal truths we need to face in 2024.
Donald Trump is likely to be the next president of the United States.
There has been no comeback like this since Nixon. Trump now leads Biden in the swing states, and in the country at large. His issues — inflation, immigration, crime— are ascendant again. The multiple lawsuits against him have backfired, shoring up his Republican support, and lending credence to his largely spurious, but rhetorically effective, claim that he is the target of a witch hunt. (The new court ruling in Colorado is likely to have the same effect.) He has played this jujitsu masterfully, keeping the focus on himself, bobbing and weaving in a stream of countless lies and threats, taking his authoritarian pitch to new heights.
“Dictator on Day One” sounds like a branding the Democrats might have deployed to destroy him. In fact, it’s helping him win the GOP nomination in a landslide. On the GOP’s most vulnerable issues — abortion and entitlements — he has inoculated himself. It’s his election to lose. The Resistance turned out to be one of his greatest assets.
It may be that his unique noxiousness could derail his momentum, as the prospect of four more years of chaos looms. The New Hampshire primary may change the atmosphere, as it has in the past, and a Haley candidacy would be lethal against Biden. But it’s beyond clear now that the way to beat Trump is to compete on policy grounds — controlling mass migration, intensifying law enforcement, touting legislative wins like the CHIPS Act — rather than to disqualify him on grounds that the American public has largely rejected.
The most delusional Ukraine supporters were telling us not so long ago that total victory was in sight. It wasn’t and isn’t. Obama’s key insight remains true: Ukraine will always matter far more to Russia than to Europe or the US, and so, “we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for.” 2023 revealed the cold truth of this. The “crippling sanctions” designed to bring Russia to its knees have failed. Putin appears to have consolidated power at home. The summer Ukraine counter-offensive failed. The Europeans are hamstrung by Orbán and their own paltry defense industry. In the US, the war is no longer bipartisan, and Trump’s re-emergence has given Putin every incentive to wait this out some more. If Trump pledges to end the war by carving up Ukraine, it will be a campaign asset, not liability.
The two-state solution in Israel/Palestine is dead.
The horrors of the last few months — the depraved, anti-Semitic terror attacks of Hamas and the devastating IDF campaign in response — have changed Israel. The vulnerability exposed on October 7 will ensure that no serious Palestinian state or even entity will win majority Israeli support in the future. I think this has been plain for a very long time, but now it’s indisputable. That giant tunnel close to the Gaza border? A symbol of what Israelis will never want to tolerate again.
Netanyahu, moreover, has devoted his entire career to preventing a two-state solution; the intensity of settlement activity and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank is as great now as ever; and the generations who have suffered several months of indescribable, random death will never forgive Israel for such a staggering slaughter of civilians, especially children. The mounting evidence suggests at best a cavalier attitude toward civilian casualties, and at worst, some truly ugly revenge fantasies. The question before us is whether Israel can sustain Western support while preventing any dignified future for the Palestinians. I doubt it. The younger generations in the West seem particularly unforgiving.
DEI is incompatible with a free society.
On the surface, making our democracy more inclusive and diverse seems like a no-brainer. And it is! We should do all we can to maximize opportunities for everyone, regardless of background, race, sex, and so on.
But what DEI does, as more people are beginning to understand, is very different. It replaces individual rights with group rights; it turns every human activity into a zero-sum struggle of identities; far from reducing racism, it intensifies it, by its obsession with what divides us over what unites us. In places of learning, it places the demands of “social justice” above the pursuit of truth, and so it has not so much enhanced education as replaced it with ideological conformity.
The extreme left, frustrated that the class struggle would never liberate America, has turned to race and racism as its means of revolution — drawing on the deep well of racist ideology in this country’s past, and deploying it for a future dedicated to the victimization of whites, Jews, Asians and any black or Latino American who still believes in merit. The anti-Semitism within it is not a bug; it’s a feature of an ideology built squarely on racial hatred and resentment.
2023 showed us the mindless grift of Kendi’s scam at BU, the end of affirmative action in the Ivies, the mediocrity of Claudine Gay, and the racial hatred that will always come when certain entire groups of people are deemed oppressors, and others deemed oppressed. This is not about college crazies. It’s about the core foundations of liberal democracy — which DEI and its guiding philosophy of critical race theory specifically aims to destroy.
Joe Biden is too old to be re-elected.
Let’s be fair: he has his moments of lucidity. He has passed significant legislation beyond anything his predecessor did. He is, at heart, a decent guy, and that counts for something. He has done his duty in saving us from a second Trump term in 2020, but is now liable to undo that very achievement by running again in 2024, and losing, possibly badly. As Jack Shafer notes, Biden was never that popular in the first place — and when prices rocketed over the past few years, he took what looks like a mortal, political blow. He wanders around stiffly and aimlessly; he peers into the teleprompter as if he can’t see the script; his voice turns into a whispery mumble whenever he tries to make a point. He’s becoming Young Mr. Grace. Reagan won re-election at the age of 73, only to suffer from Alzheimers before the end of his term. The idea that this 81-year-old man could command the country in four years’ time is as delusional as the blithe self-confidence of his team.
Here, of course, comes the caveat. This time next year, I may be writing a piece about Biden’s astonishing comeback, Ukraine’s surprise military breakthrough, Trump’s conviction in Georgia, the Palestinian Authority’s takeover of Gaza, and Ibram X Kendi becoming President Harris’ new Education Secretary. And I expect you all to roast me for it. In which case, I look forward to the humiliation. And a happy new year to you too.
(Note to readers: This is an excerpt of The Weekly Dish. If you’re already a subscriber, click hereto read the full version. This week’s issue also includes: my long chat with Joe Klein about the big stories of 2023; dissents over my column on the Ivy presidents at Congress; a new piece on Claudine Gay; more dissents and other commentary on some of our recent pod episodes; 10 notable quotes for the week in news; 18 links to Substack pieces we recommend on a variety of topics; a Mental Health Break of a raunchy Christmas mashup; a Rust Belt view of Iron Belt; and, of course, the results of the View From Your Window contest — with a new challenge.)
A newcomer notes: “That column finally convinced this longtime lurker to become a paid subscriber.”
The Gay Science
Watching Harvard president Claudine Gay twist in the wind has not been an edifying spectacle. You’d be inhuman not to feel for her. But it is now inescapably clear that, in her parsimonious and unremarkable publications, she violated Harvard’s own student standards on what Harvard now (hilariously) calls “duplicative language” and the NYT calls “insufficient citation.” She couldn’t even come up with her own phrases in an acknowledgment!
(Read the rest of that 800-word piece here, for paid subscribers)
A Christmas Sale
If you’re a regular reader of the Dish and still on the fence over paying up, use this link for a special discount of 25 percent off an annual subscription. That’s just $37.50 for a full year of the full Dish offerings:
Every weekly issue (not the small free one), which contains: my main column; one or two shorter items by me; a serious dissent section, where I respond to tough arguments from readers; notable quotes from the week in news; about 20 recommended pieces by other Substackers; reader photos from windows around the world; and fun features like the Mental Health Break.
Every full episode of the podcast, in which I interview, debate, or simply gab with guests. They’ve included Cornel West, Bob Woodward, Bari Weiss, Chris Rufo, Ann Coulter, John McWhorter, Briahna Joy Gray, Steven Pinker, Tina Brown, Fareed Zakaria, Rod Dreher, Glenn Greenwald, and Vivek Ramaswamy. Browse all the episodes here — including a number of transcripts. The weekly pod page also includes more dissents and other commentary from readers and listeners, along with my replies.
The View From Your Window contest, where readers guess the location of a photo taken from a window, with prizes for the winners. It’s a kind of group travelogue. Readers display an amazing array of sleuthing skills, cultural and historical knowledge, movie trivia, food and cocktails recipes, animal facts, entertaining pics and videos, and personal stories of tourism. (Here’s an example.)
Joe is a journalist, author, old-school blogger, and an old friend. He’s written seven books, most famously Primary Colors, and he was a longtime columnist for Time magazine. This year he launched a must-read substack called “Sanity Clause,” and he just started a podcast with the great John Ellis called “Wise Owls.” We had fun.
Listen to the episode here. There you can find two clips of our convo — on Trump getting more political savvy, and the NYT’s propaganda on domestic issues. That link also takes you to commentary on our episodes with David Leonhardt, Cat Bohannon, and Graeme Wood, along with continued debate over Israel. Plus, Bowie art!
Browse the Dishcast archive for another convo you might enjoy (the first 102 episodes are free in their entirety — subscribe to get everything else). Coming up: Carole Hooven returns to talk about her tribulations at Harvard, Alexandra Hudson on civility, and Jennifer Burns on her new biography of Milton Friedman. Please send any guest recs, dissent and other comments to dish@andrewsullivan.com. A listener writes:
As a loyal Dishhead, I thank you for The Weekly Dish. Nothing gives me greater pleasure than taking my dog Marco (a six-year-old, 87-pound Bernedoodle) for a long walk and listening to your latest and always informative podcast.
Dissents Of The Week
A reader writes:
While I certainly do not agree with the college presidents, I don’t see how this is an issue for Congress. Harvard, Yale, and MIT are private institutions and are free to set their own rules and teachings on a variety of subjects, as long as they follow state and federal laws. It’s really no different from institutions like Liberty University teaching that same-sex marriage and prostitution are evil. I don’t agree with them, but they are private universities and can teach whatever they want. Some private schools in the US still teach creationism and Congress hasn’t intervened.
Read my response, along with two other dissents, here. More dissent, over Israel, is over on the pod page. Follow more Dish discussion on the Notes site here (or the “Notes” tab in the Substack app).
In The ‘Stacks
This is a feature in the paid version of the Dish spotlighting about 20 of our favorite pieces from other Substackers every week. This week’s selection covers subjects such as the Colorado court ruling, the economy’s soft landing, and the new George Floyd documentary. For instance:
Rosie Spinks has an excellent essay on the crisis of modern friendships: they “feel strikingly similar to admin.”
When it comes to sex, why are so many dudes werewolves?
Elle Griffin and a slew of writers defend Substack against a lame Atlantic piece and calls to de-platform “Nazis.” Substack isn’t caving.
You can also browse all the substacks we follow and read on a regular basis here — a combination of our favorite writers and new ones we’re checking out. It’s a blogroll of sorts. If you have any recommendations for “In the ‘Stacks,” especially ones from emerging writers, please let us know: dish@andrewsullivan.com.
The View From Your Window Contest
Where do you think it’s located? (The cartoon beagle is hiding an identifying sign.) Email your guess to contest@andrewsullivan.com. Please put the location — city and/or state first, then country — in the subject line. Proximity counts if no one gets the exact spot. Bonus points for fun facts and stories. The deadline for entries is Wednesday night at midnight (PST). The winner gets the choice of a VFYW book or two annual Dish subscriptions. If you are not a subscriber, please indicate that status in your entry and we will give you a free month subscription if we select your entry for the contest results (example here if you’re new to the contest). Happy sleuthing!
The results for this week’s window are coming in a separate email to paid subscribers later today. A long-time artist for the contest sends “a little gift to you and Chris”:
It’s an updated (improved?) version of my Dishhead Christmas card homage, including Bowie w/halo ... sniff:
Sorry to have dropped from the face of the earth this year — I’m still a fan of the contest! Best wishes to you both for the New Year!
See you all on January 12 after the holiday break — though we’ll probably have a podcast for you on January 5. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
